Continuing geopolitical uncertainty slows momentum in the global economy
Global economic growth in 2024 was slowed by the impact of continuing geopolitical conflicts, especially the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. Electoral successes by nationalist parties in various Western countries contributed to the uncertainty around the international trade environment. Support for growth came from the noticeable decline in inflation in advanced economies, which enabled leading central banks to ease monetary policy starting from around the middle of the year. Particularly in Europe, however, uncertainty about the volatile political environment meant that both investors and consumers continued to hold back. The still high gas and electricity prices by historical standards, the investment backlog and adverse demographic trends are weakening the structural competitiveness of Europe and Germany. This has so far prevented a dynamic recovery in the European economy.
The data mentioned in the following paragraph describing the economic conditions stem from S&P Global Market Intelligence.
Global GDP growth continued to weaken from 2.9% in 2023 to 2.7% in 2024. GDP growth in the advanced economies remained at 1.8%. In the eurozone, where growth slumped to 0.5% in the previous year due to the war in Ukraine, there was a slight recovery, with the economy expanding by 0.7% in 2024. Germany’s GDP contracted by 0.2%. Growth in the United States weakened slightly from 2.9% to 2.8% despite a still very expansive fiscal policy. In the emerging markets, growth fell from 4.3% to 4.1%. This was due not least to the Chinese economy, which slowed from 5.2% to 5.0%.
Macroeconomic tailwind remains weak
Growth in global industrial production and global trade were low again in 2024. After a 0.7% rise in 2023, industrial production grew by 1.1% in the year under review. International companies saw their export volumes rise by 3.0%, compared with 1.4% in 2023. This produced only a slight rise in demand and volumes in the logistics sector compared with the previous year.
E-commerce with structural growth dynamic
The e-commerce sector proved its structural strength in the challenging macroeconomic environment. After slightly lower momentum in 2023, e-commerce-based business grew once again in 2024, which underscores the long-term change in consumer behavior. DHL Group is making use of this growth trend as an opportunity to further expand and improve its e-commerce logistics services.
Legal environment
The Group provides some of its services in regulated markets. Many of the postal services rendered by Deutsche Post AG and its subsidiaries (particularly the Post & Parcel Germany division) are subject to sector-specific regulation under the Postgesetz (PostG – German Postal Act). Information regarding this issue and legal risks is contained in note 46 to the consolidated financial statements.
