As set out in our Strategy 2030, we firmly believe that global trade flows will continue to offer attractive growth opportunities for our logistics business in the future. However, the current debates around future tariff and trade policy in major economies complicate any short-term assessment of world trade dynamics. We are therefore basing our outlook on the assumption that global economic growth will remain below average, as in the previous year. In this context, and in implementing Strategy 2030, we will focus in 2025 on boosting streamlined divisional structures with our “Fit for Growth” operating cost program, which is set to have a favorable impact on earnings in 2025 and 2026.
With the help of the cost program, we expect a slight rise in Group EBIT from the previous year’s figure of €5.9 billion to at least €6.0 billion in the 2025 fiscal year. The DHL divisions are projected to generate total EBIT of at least €5.5 billion. In the Post & Parcel Germany division, EBIT is forecast to come in at around €1.0 billion. Group Functions is anticipated to contribute around €– 0.4 billion to earnings. This outlook does not cover potential impacts of changes in tariff or trade policies as such changes could have substantial negative but also positive effects.
In view of the expected EBIT development in combination with a predicted increase in the asset charge, we expect the EAC to reach at least the previous year’s level. Free cash flow is projected at around €2.75 billion, including a €250 million overall budget for M&A expenses.
Apart from the changes already described, the current business planning has not identified any significant changes in the Group’s overall opportunity and risk situation compared with last year’s risk report. No new risks with a potentially critical impact upon the Group’s result have been identified according to current assessments. Based upon the Group’s early-warning system and in the estimation of its Board of Management, there were no identifiable risks for the Group in the current forecast period that, individually or collectively, cast doubt upon the Group’s ability to continue as a going concern. Nor are any such risks apparent in the foreseeable future. The stable to positive outlook projected for the Group is moreover reflected in our credit rating.
