Uncertainty around changes in tariff and trade policy
The existing uncertainty regarding changes to tariff and trade policy in various countries is likely to remain high and could have considerable impacts on international freight markets. The United States no longer supporting renewable energy could also cause turbulence in global energy markets and hamper long-term planning of investments. In Europe, the increase in real purchasing power should bolster consumer demand. Overall, however, global annual average GDP growth is likely to weaken modestly once again from 2.7% in the reporting year to 2.5% in 2025.
For the most important countries and regions, S&P Global Market Intelligence predicts the following GDP growth rates in 2025: Growth in China and the United States is expected to weaken to 4.2% and 2.0%, respectively. Meanwhile, a cheaper euro combined with a moderate recovery in consumer spending is likely to trigger a slight increase to 0.9% GDP growth in the eurozone and 0.4% growth in Germany.
Highly cyclical international express market
Growth in the international express market, particularly in the B2B segment, is highly dependent upon the economic situation. For 2025, we still expect only moderate growth, depending on economic development.
Freight business influenced by demand and geopolitical developments
Developments in freight logistics are heavily dependent upon the economic situation and are difficult to predict in light of the uncertain market situation. In air and ocean freight, we expect demand to pick up moderately given economic conditions and anticipate modest growth for 2025. The situation in the Red Sea will remain a significant factor for the ocean freight market as it continues to cause capacity shortages. On top of this, the uncertainty in relation to possible tariffs planned by various countries is likely to remain high. In light of rather moderate economic growth, we also expect only restrained volume growth in the European road transport market in 2025.
Contract logistics market continues to grow
The contract logistics market is expected to continue its growth in 2025. The main drivers include the ongoing complexity of supply chains, the expansion of omnichannel e-commerce, and the need for flexible and agile logistics solutions. In volatile economic times, companies increase their outsourcing of logistics processes in order to reduce costs and improve efficiency. Inflation, the general economic situation and labor shortages present challenges and opportunities in equal measure for the contract logistics market.
Stable growth prospects for eCommerce
It is expected that e-commerce will continue to grow and that its share of total retail revenue will further increase. In line with the implementation of our expansion plans, we will continue to invest in our network, efficient workflows for the last mile, and infrastructure so that we can offer our customers a reliable service with good value for money. We see additional opportunities for expansion through fostering organic and inorganic growth, and local and regional partnerships with carriers, postal services and marketplaces.
Stable trends in the relevant post and parcel markets
The German market for paper-based mail communication will decline further as digital communication increases. We will continue to adapt the Post & Parcel Germany product portfolio to reflect this development.
The German advertising market should rise slightly in 2025. However, the shift from paper-based advertising to online marketing will continue, so that the volumes in the physical advertising market – and thus for our Dialogue Marketing services – are expected to be in decline.
According to current predictions, the rising number of goods shipments will partially compensate for significantly declining volumes of documents in international business. Intra-European and international e-commerce could once again grow significantly, despite cautious consumer sentiment.
We expect development in e-commerce to stabilize and the German parcel market to grow slightly again in 2025. We are therefore expanding our parcel network and our automated network, which includes Packstations and Poststations, for example. We are also expanding our range of electronic communications services, securing our standing as a quality leader and, where possible, making our transport and delivery costs more flexible.
