Opportunity and risk categories

Overview of material opportunities and risks

We identify opportunities and risks using the categories described in the following overview. In the overview, we have allocated our material opportunities and risks to these categories with the corresponding significance and measurement and explained them in the following pages:

Both the material as well as the immaterial opportunities and risks from the overview are specified in the following. Unless otherwise explicitly labeled, these are considered immaterial.

Opportunities and risks arising from corporate strategy

Over the past few years, the Group has ensured that its business activities are well positioned in the world’s fastest-growing regions and markets. We are also constantly working to create efficient structures in all areas to enable us to flexibly adapt capacities and costs to demand, which is a condition for lasting, profitable business success. With respect to our strategic orientation, we are focusing on our core competencies in the logistics and letter mail businesses. Our earnings projections regularly take account of development opportunities arising from our strategic orientation.

We take action early to counter potential strategic risks. In doing so, it helps that our portfolio of customers and supplier companies is as broad as possible and that we focus on profitable sectors and products, regularly review customer and product performance, practice strict cost management and add surcharges whenever necessary.

In the Express division, future performance will be decisively shaped by macroeconomic parameters, competitive pressures, cost developments and shipment volumes. We aim to continue growing our international business and expect medium- to long-term growth in international trade. Based on this outlook, we are investing in our network, services, employees and the DHL brand. Higher US tariffs and the removal of de minimis thresholds have led to a decline in shipment volumes, with corresponding reductions also impacting seasonal surcharges. However, these developments also create opportunities to better leverage flight routes with underutilized capacity and reduce imbalances in shipment streams across the network. To offset volume declines, we maintain strict yield and cost discipline, continuously adjust our air network and enhance productivity in ground operations and at hubs.

In the Global Forwarding, Freight division, we purchase transport services for customers from airlines, shipping companies and freight carriers rather than providing them ourselves. In the best case, we are able to outsource transport services at such a low rate that we can generate a margin. In the worst-case scenario, we bear the risk of not being able to pass on all price increases to our customers. The extent of our opportunities and risks essentially depends on trends in the supply, demand and pricing of transport services as well as the duration of our contracts. Comprehensive knowledge in the area of brokering transport services helps us to capitalize on opportunities and minimize risk.

In the Supply Chain division, our success is closely tied to our customers’ business performance. We offer a diverse range of products for companies in various sectors globally, which allows us to diversify our risk portfolio and counter potential risks. Our future success will depend on our ability to continuously enhance our existing operations, seamlessly integrate new business ventures, and expand in our key markets and segments. We will continue to leverage innovative solutions and technologies to drive efficiency and deliver value to our customers.

The eCommerce division is responsible for domestic and international deferred standard parcel delivery services in various countries around the globe. It predominantly serves customers in the fast-growing e-commerce sector. In the cross-border segment, we are building a platform that connects to the most cost-efficient networks for last-mile delivery. We aim to grow profitably in all sectors and segments. To counteract the fundamental risk of rising cost pressure, we have taken measures with which we intend to improve network efficiency and cost flexibility. Cost flexibility, especially in last-mile delivery, will also help us manage the rising volatility of volumes in the eCommerce division.

In the German mail and parcel business, we are responding to the challenges posed by the structural shift from a physical to a digital business and the continual decline in letter mail occurring parallel to the steady increase in volumes of parcels and merchandise mail items. We are counteracting the risk arising from changing demand by offering a range of services that can be tailored to shifting customer requirements. Due to the rise in e-commerce, we expect our parcel business to continue growing in the coming years. We are therefore continuously expanding our network of Packstations and Poststations. We are also expanding our range of electronic communications services, securing our standing as a quality leader and, where possible, making our transport and delivery costs more flexible. We follow developments in the market very closely and take them into account in our earnings projections.

We currently do not see any specific corporate strategy opportunities or risks of material significance, either for the Group or individual divisions.

Legal and compliance-related opportunities and risks

Legal disputes may arise in the case of noncompliance with national or international laws and regulations as well as agreements. Investigations of any such violations may result in considerable costs, penalties and damage to our company’s reputation, which could have a disadvantageous impact on the business activities of the Group.

Compliance with laws, regulations and agreements is a clearly formulated obligation of all employees of the Group, and ensuring this is one of the fundamental tasks of our managers. To support our employees and managers, we have established a corporate compliance unit differentiated according to relevant topics that, on the basis of our risk management system, monitors compliance with Group-wide standards at both Group and divisional level with respect to typical compliance risks. Thus, in addition to our compliance initiative aimed at preventing fraud and fighting corruption and violations of cartel and competition law, we have introduced a data protection management system in all divisions intended to ensure compliance with data protection laws – for example, the provisions of the European Union’s General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). A similar, Group-wide compliance initiative aims to ensure adherence to international and national export controls and embargo regulations. Moreover, our compliance unit supports, coordinates and monitors the observance of human rights and the fundamental environmental standards in our own operations as well as in our external supply chain.

Sanctions and foreign trade compliance risks arise from highly regulated transactions with sanctioned countries, prohibited parties and military or dual-use goods. Violations may result in large financial penalties, operational restrictions and considerable reputational damage. The continuing volatile geopolitical situation increases complexity and requires extensive screening, control and approval processes. We counter the risk with extensive compliance measures such as automated denied-party and country screenings. Overall, sanctions and foreign trade compliance risks represent a risk of medium significance to the Group (1).

At present, we do not see any further specific legal or compliance-related opportunities or risks of material significance.

Opportunities and risks arising from capital expenditure and projects

The Group invests in maintaining and growing its network, in buildings and technical equipment, in IT solutions and in its fleet of vehicles and freight aircraft. The objective of the investment projects is to strengthen the positioning of our divisions in consideration of aspects related to economic efficiency and sustainability.

The risks associated with the investments relate primarily to potential deviations in costs and timelines as well as to the complexity of the projects and the availability of resources. This can lead to adverse effects on the economic efficiency, continuity and quality of our services.

The aforementioned risks are monitored via ongoing project management and investment controlling so that targeted countermeasures can be taken at an early stage. The status of investment projects is documented on a regular basis and reported to the Group Board of Management and, for larger projects, to the Supervisory Board. Moreover, the Group Board of Management is informed promptly of any critical projects.

We do not currently see any specific opportunities or risks of significance in the area of investment projects.

Operational opportunities and risks

Logistics services are generally provided in bulk and require a complex operational and external infrastructure with high quality standards. Any weaknesses with regard to the tendering, sorting, transport, warehousing, customs clearance or delivery of shipments could seriously compromise our competitive position. In particular, the impairment of significant infrastructure such as central transport hubs can have negative effects. Recent years have revealed how external factors such as geopolitical conflicts can restrict our transport routes and means or reduce the availability of our employees, and hence potentially impair our operating performance. To consistently guarantee reliability and punctual delivery, processes must be organized and adjusted as necessary so as to proceed smoothly with no technical or personnel-related glitches. We counteract potential operational risks, for example through efficient workflows and structures. We also take out insurance policies to guard against potential losses.

A large number of internal processes must be aligned so that we can render our services. This also includes supporting functions such as sales and purchasing. The extent to which we succeed in aligning our internal processes to meet customer needs while simultaneously lowering costs correlates with potential positive deviations from the current projections. Our earnings projections already incorporate the expected cost savings.

At this time, we do not see any specific operational opportunities or risks of material significance.

Opportunities and risks arising from human resources

Qualified, dedicated and motivated employees are a prerequisite for sustainable success. Labor markets around the world are currently in a state of change. While the working population is declining or stagnating in some countries and regions, it is growing in others. For a global organization like DHL Group, this means adjusting to different demographic trends. These changes are also bringing new expectations on the part of the workforce. The increasing diversity in terms of age, education, gender, and cultural and professional background is changing views of employers, working conditions and leadership. We therefore strive to create a working environment in which equal treatment and opportunities for all, inclusive leadership and attractive development opportunities, are actively promoted.

At the same time, technological progress is transforming almost every area of work. Automation and digital solutions require new skills. For DHL Group, it is therefore vital to provide ongoing training for our employees and to give them the capabilities that will be relevant in the future. Professional development for executives plays a central role in this, with our Group-wide Leadership Dimensions serving as a guide for action. In addition, we ensure that all employees are able to continuously improve their skills in line with their needs, both on the job and through off-the-job training courses. An important component of this is the Career Marketplace introduced across the Group: a technology platform offering appropriate training and job opportunities based on individual profiles.

Alongside training and development, the health and safety of our employees are the top priority for DHL Group. We make use of initiatives tailored to local requirements and cooperate across divisions in the management of healthcare initiatives. We also strengthen employees’ own individual knowledge and tools for health. Mental health is another central topic: We address risks through preventive activities, including a constantly refined system to assess the risk of mental stresses and e-learning courses for executives.

As a globally active company with approximately 584,000 employees (headcount as of December 31, 2025) in over 220 countries and territories, upholding human rights is a top priority for us. We account for this responsibility through our Human Rights Policy Statement. If infringements are reported, we take appropriate measures to investigate them.

The development of staff costs is a key factor for us due to the large number of employees. This particularly includes the impact of collective bargaining negotiations. The current collective bargaining agreement of Deutsche Post AG applies until the end of 2026. The development of staff costs is also covered as a component of inflation risk in the Market- and customer-specific opportunities and risks section.

Overall, we do not currently see any personnel-related opportunities or risks of material significance.

Opportunities and risks arising from information technology

The security of our information systems is particularly important to us. The goal is to ensure continuous IT system operation and prevent unauthorized access to our systems and databases. To this end, we have defined guidelines, standards and procedures based upon ISO 27001, the international standard for information security management. In addition, IT risks are monitored and assessed on an ongoing basis by Group Risk Management, Corporate Internal Audit, Data Protection and Corporate Security.

For our business processes to run smoothly at all times, the essential IT systems must be continuously available. We have therefore designed our systems to protect against complete system failure. Our software is monitored and updated regularly to address potential bugs, close gaps in security and increase functionality. We employ a patch management process – a defined procedure for managing software upgrades – to control risks that could arise from outdated software or from software upgrades. In this context, we use structured processes to collect and check the devices and software versions used in our IT network, the goal being to achieve the highest possible level of coverage.

We limit access to our systems and data such that employees can generally only access the data they need to perform their duties. Systems and data are backed up on a regular basis, and critical data are replicated across data centers. We make use of outsourced data centers of established providers and operate central data centers in the Czech Republic, Malaysia and the United States. Our systems are thus geographically separate and, in addition, are replicated at local disaster recovery locations.

To assess risks in the area of information security, we take a uniform Group-wide approach that factors in risks from the lack of availability, manipulation, misuse, spying and infection of data and information, as well as physical damage to IT facilities. In total, these represent a latent risk of medium significance (2).

Artificial intelligence (AI) opens up a wide range of possibilities, but it also comes with increasing risks for the Group due to the dangers of cybercrime. In addition, complying with the law in dealing with generative AI is a general compliance topic.

We also take continuous action to minimize risk, such as holding regular training courses for our employees and monitoring all of our networks and IT systems globally via our Cyber Defense Center, along with regular information security incident simulations.

We currently do not see any other specific IT-related opportunities or risks of material significance.

Financial opportunities and risks

As a global operator, we are exposed to financial opportunities and risks arising from fluctuating foreign exchange rates, interest rates and commodities prices, as well as the Group’s capital requirements. Changes in pension obligations also impact our business. Due to the high volatility of recent years, the influence of interest rates on our pension obligations represents both a risk as well as an opportunity of medium significance for us (3). We attempt to reduce the volatility of our financial performance due to financial risk by implementing both operational and financial management measures. Within the Group, derivative financial instruments are used exclusively for hedging purposes and thus reduce existing risks. Detailed information on risks in relation to the Group’s defined benefit retirement plans can be found in note 37 to the consolidated financial statements.

With respect to currencies, opportunities and risks result from scheduled foreign-currency transactions as well as those budgeted for the future. Any significant currency risks arising from budgeted transactions are quantified as a net position over a rolling 18-month period. Highly correlated currencies are consolidated in blocs. At the Group level, the most important net surpluses are budgeted for the US dollar bloc as well as for the pound sterling, the Japanese yen and the Australian dollar. The Czech koruna is the only currency with a considerable net deficit. The main currency risks for 2026 were approximately 30% hedged at the reporting date.

Any general depreciation of the euro presents an opportunity as regards the Group’s earnings position. The main risk to the Group’s earnings position would be a general appreciation of the euro.

As a logistics group, our biggest commodity price risks result from changes in fuel prices (kerosene, diesel and marine fuels). In the divisions, most of these risks are passed on to customers via operating measures (fuel surcharges).

The key control parameters for liquidity management are the centrally available liquidity reserves. The Group’s liquidity is secured over the short and medium terms. Moreover, the Group enjoys open access to the capital markets on account of its solid investment-grade rating and is well positioned to ensure that long-term capital requirements are fulfilled. We therefore see no significant risk to the Group at present in the area of liquidity.

Further information on the Group’s financial position and finance strategy, as well as on the management of financial risks, can be found in the Report on economic position and in note 44 to the consolidated financial statements.

Risks may also arise from our accounting, controlling, budgetary and financial processes. We monitor those processes continuously to prevent such risks from materializing.

We do not currently see any other significant financial opportunities or risks.

Tax-related opportunities and risks

Due to the international scope of our operations, we are subject to a variety of tax regimes. Opportunities and risks arise from the introduction of new types of taxes, legislative changes and judicial rulings. As such, opportunities and risks could arise from the different interpretation of complex tax regulations, for instance.

We mitigate this risk through continual dialogue with taxation authorities and tax advisers to obtain the greatest possible degree of legal certainty. This allows us to meet tax compliance requirements in the countries in which we operate to the best of our knowledge and belief. Our Group risk management system incorporates a tax risk management framework that enables us to monitor and avoid tax risk as far as possible.

Currently, we have not identified any significant tax­related opportunities or risks.

Opportunities and risks related to real estate transactions

DHL Group is one of the world’s largest corporate users of industrial properties. A large portion of the Group’s industrial real estate portfolio consists of leased properties. Ownership solutions have additionally been implemented for a number of especially strategic properties. Our business may be impacted by opportunities and risks arising from the lease, purchase, sale, construction or use of real estate. A global team of real estate professionals manages the Group portfolio and ensures that any opportunities or risks are identified at an early stage and a suitable response is selected.

We negotiate suitable solutions early with our lessors, analyze real estate markets and identify suitable properties for expanding or optimizing the current portfolio based on our divisions’ business strategies and operational location planning. The main objective is to secure the availability of properties needed for our core business.

We do not currently see any specific opportunities or risks of significance in the area of real estate.

Market- and customer-specific opportunities and risks

Macroeconomic and sector-specific conditions are a key factor in determining the success of our business. In addition to the development of the global economy, growth in the logistics market and its interaction with our stakeholders – our customers, suppliers and competitors – is of particular importance in this regard. Changes in demand present both opportunities and risks.

Volume developments at our customers also have a decisive impact on our business performance. These volumes are likewise exposed to macroeconomic trends and the development of the respective sector. We monitor market developments on an ongoing basis and review the potential financial effects of relationships with business partners and suppliers at regular intervals, to enable us to avert any risk that could arise from potential insolvencies, for example, at an early stage. Our Customer Solutions & Innovation unit uses a risk dashboard for this purpose.

Global trade and consumers’ general inclination to spend remain persistently weak, partly due to geopolitical instability. There are differing views as to the scale and timing of the possible upturns in the macroeconomic environment. We expect moderate business performance in 2026. In spite of the continued expectation of weaker global economic growth, we will see opportunities for growth, for instance through structural growth in e-commerce. The general trend of businesses outsourcing processes continues as well. In addition, our DHL divisions are benefitting from rising demand for complex and integrated logistics solutions thanks to our position as the global market leader.

Our strong position in all the regions in which we operate allows us to compensate, at least partially, for declines in certain trade lanes, often based on growth in others. Cyclical risks can affect our divisions differently depending on their magnitude and point in time, which could mitigate the total effect. Moreover, we have taken measures in recent years to make costs more flexible and to allow us to respond quickly to changes in market demand. However, an additional weakening of global economic growth represents a risk of medium significance (4).

Deutsche Post and DHL are in competition with already established companies, as well as new entrants to the market. Such competition can significantly impact our customer base as well as the levels of prices and margins in our markets. In the logistics and letter mail business, the key factors for success are quality, confidence and competitive prices. Thanks to the high quality we offer, along with the cost savings we have generated in recent years, we believe that we will be able to remain competitive and keep any negative effects at a low level.

As a logistics group, we are additionally exposed to the effects of fluctuations in market prices on Group profit. On top of this, inflation is driving changes in staff costs. With the recent fall in inflation and the current collective bargaining agreement for Deutsche Post AG, which runs until the end of 2026, inflation now only represents a risk of low significance for us overall.

The availability of energy from renewable sources is of central importance for us to achieve our sustainability goals. In line with Strategy 2030, our ambition is for sustainable fuels to account for 30% of the fuel we use by 2030. The concern that the current availability and planned projects do not yet appear to be sufficient to meet the demand for sustainable aviation fuels has eased to some degree given current information. Overall, the possibility that the market supply of energy from renewable sources and sustainable fuels may not be sufficient continues to represent a risk of medium significance for us (5). A lack of availability of energy from renewable sources and sustainable fuels, including the necessary infrastructure, could delay decarbonization of our business operations and upstream value chain and result in us missing long-term targets and incurring reputational damage.

Beyond this, no significant opportunities or risks are seen at present in this risk category.

Opportunities and risks arising from political, regulatory or legal conditions

Our business is fundamentally intertwined with the political and legal environments in which we operate. The stability and security of international transport routes and the freedom of trade represent the first line in this framework. They could be critically disrupted by events ranging from geopolitical developments to sanctions and military conflicts. Among other things, these developments could also result in impairment risks. A number of the indirect effects of geopolitical crises, such as the development of the global economy and inflation, have been taken into account for the corresponding risks. The remaining direct effects in the countries and regions affected currently represent a risk of low significance.

In addition, the international transport of goods is subject to the import, export and transit regulations of more than 220 countries and territories as well as their applicable foreign trade laws. In recent years, not only the number but also the complexity of such laws and regulations has increased significantly (including their extraterritorial application). Violations are also being pursued more aggressively by the competent authorities, with stricter penalties imposed. We have implemented, on the one hand, ongoing monitoring of the regulatory and legislative developments in the markets most relevant for us and, on the other, a Group-wide compliance program in response to this development. This comprises the legally prescribed checking of all senders, recipients, suppliers and employees against current embargo lists. In addition, this includes in particular the legally required review of shipments for the purpose of enforcing applicable export restrictions as well as country sanctions and embargoes. DHL Group also cooperates with the responsible authorities, both in working to prevent violations as well as in assisting in the investigation of any infringements in order to avoid or limit potential sanctions.

A number of risks arise from the fact that the Group provides some of its services in regulated markets. Many of the postal services rendered by Deutsche Post AG and its subsidiaries (particularly the Post & Parcel Germany division) are subject to sector-specific regulation by the German Federal Network Agency (Bundesnetzagentur) on the basis of the Postgesetz (German Postal Act). The German Federal Network Agency approves or reviews prices, formulates the terms of downstream access, has special supervisory powers to combat market abuse and guarantees the provision of universal postal services. This general regulatory risk could lead to a decline in revenue and earnings in the event of negative decisions.

It cannot be ruled out that the effects on existing pricing approvals, or on future price cap procedures, of the actions currently pending could be negative for Deutsche Post. According to current assessments, however, this now only represents a risk of low significance. The change since the previous year is mainly due to the fact that in the case of the civil suit filed by one postal service provider for repayment of allegedly excessive conveyance fees for standard letters delivered in 2017, the plaintiff’s appeal against non-permission was dismissed by the German Federal Court of Justice in the second quarter of 2025.

We describe significant legal proceedings in note 46 to the consolidated financial statements.

Since the beginning of 2025, we have increasingly observed that competitors are tendering their letter mail services without VAT, despite the fact that they do not provide a nationwide universal postal service. This appears to have arisen from tax authorities treating these companies as universal service providers, which we believe to be contrary to European law. This development, which has emerged from an incorrect interpretation of the requirements that postal service providers must fulfil in order to qualify as a universal service provider, represents a risk to Post & Parcel Germany of medium significance (6). This is because Deutsche Post AG incurs higher costs as a result of the nationwide universal service it provides and its limited entitlement to deduct input taxes. The company may face additional legal and commercial risks with the current differing treatment under tax and regulatory/postal law.

The Council of the European Union has resolved in connection with the EU Customs Reform to abolish the customs duty exemption for goods valued at up to €150 in the B2C segment with effect from July 1, 2026, and to apply a minimum duty of €3 to these goods. For all other shipments, ad valorem duties and a considerably more onerous customs declaration process would apply. New data requirements are also envisaged, whose fulfilment would involve considerable resources in the logistics sector. Another problematic aspect is that customs representatives will be forced to provide indirect customs representation only, making them directly liable for all duties. If the intended framework remains unchanged in the course of the further negotiations, this will result in considerable operational impacts and increase financial risks.

The latest proposal on the EU Customs Reform includes the introduction of a customs handling fee of €2 for e-commerce shipments valued at up to €150, which is to be used to fund a new EU customs authority. However, several EU member states, including France, are introducing their own national customs clearance fees, from the beginning of 2026 or later dates, in response to fiscal, trade-related or other interests. Divergent national approaches, including different collection methods, are leading to a highly fragmented EU market and considerable financial and operational risks.

In addition, the risk of changes to customs-related and commercial regulations arising from US trade policy could substantially increase in the future if trade conflicts worsen again and other countries take retaliatory measures. In the case before the United States Supreme Court regarding the legality of the tariffs imposed using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), the decision expected in June 2026 at the latest could result in complex reimbursement and unwinding processes. We are continuously monitoring the situation to address this risk.

Overall, customs-related and commercial regulations and measures represent a risk of medium significance to the Group (7).

The fight against climate change may result in increased regulatory and legal changes in the coming years. An increase in, or stepped-up introduction of external carbon prices, such as carbon taxes and levies, certification regulations and other direct costs in conjunction with greenhouse gas emissions represents a risk of medium significance (8). We have implemented ongoing monitoring of the regulatory and legislative developments in the markets most relevant for us in response to this risk, but above all we constantly work to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions. To this end, we have set ourselves greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets verified by the Science Based Targets initiative. The lack of clear rules and criteria on how to account for insetting (GHG protocol) and on decarbonization claims could potentially result in challenges in the commercialization of greenhouse gas emission reductions to customers. Potentially stronger legislation and standards could lead to operational risks due to resource allocation, create higher costs for verification, auditing, reporting and implementation, and result in compliance challenges and reputational risks. Uncertainty around the recognition of decarbonization measures and environmental claims currently represents a risk of medium significance (9).

We have not identified any other significant opportunities or risks associated with the political, regulatory or statutory environment.

Opportunities and risks arising from the environment, disasters and epidemics

Our business operations can be impacted by natural disasters, epidemics and ecological factors, also including physical risks caused by climate change, such as floods or storms, and other crisis events.

Overall, we do not currently see any specific opportunities or risks of material significance in this area.