Little change in global growth prospects amid high geopolitical uncertainty
Although economic data and leading indicators in the fourth quarter of 2025 point to only a modest weakening in average global GDP growth from 2.9% in 2025 to 2.7% in 2026, major geopolitical uncertainty persists. Changes in tariff and trade policy are affecting international freight markets. In Europe, fiscal easing in Germany linked to the two off-budget funds for defense and infrastructure should increasingly support economic growth, especially since the increases in real purchasing power in 2024 and 2025 have only to a limited extent fed through to higher consumer spending so far.
For the most important countries and regions, S&P Global Market Intelligence predicts the following GDP growth rates in 2026: Growth is expected to increase slightly from 2.2% to 2.3% in the United States, but to fall from 5.0% to 4.6% in China and from 1.5% to 1.1% in the eurozone. At 0.8% in 2026, growth in the German economy is likely to be moderately stronger than in 2025, against the wider EU trend. This owes to the stimulus from additional public investment.
Highly cyclical international express market
Growth in the international express market, particularly in the B2B segment, is highly dependent upon the economic situation. For 2026, we still expect only moderate growth, depending on economic development. This reflects our basic expectation that growth in B2B volumes in the medium term will roughly correspond to growth in global trade. The development of B2C volumes has been heavily influenced over recent years by fluctuations in economic growth and changes in tariffs and trade policy. Stabilization of these external factors would therefore support a return to international B2C growth.
Freight business influenced by demand and geopolitical developments
Developments in freight logistics are heavily dependent upon the economic situation and are difficult to predict in light of the uncertain market situation. We expect restrained growth in air and ocean freight for 2026. The situation in the Red Sea remains a relevant factor for the future environment. On top of this, the uncertainty in relation to tariffs and potential trade policy measures by various countries is likely to remain high. In light of rather moderate economic growth, we also expect only restrained volume growth in the European road transport market in 2026.
Contract logistics market continues to grow
The contract logistics market is set to continue its long-term growth trend in 2026. The main drivers include the ongoing complexity of supply chains, the expansion of omnichannel e-commerce solutions, and the complex requirements in the life sciences and healthcare sector. These structural trends are bolstering demand for flexible and agile logistics solutions. Inflation, the general economic situation and labor shortages present challenges and opportunities in equal measure for the contract logistics market.
Stable growth prospects for eCommerce
It is expected that e-commerce will continue to grow and that its share of total retail revenue will further increase. In line with the implementation of our expansion plans, we will continue to invest in our network, efficient workflows for the last mile, and infrastructure. We see additional opportunities for expansion through fostering organic and inorganic growth, and local and regional partnerships with carriers, postal services and marketplaces.
Stable trends in the relevant post and parcel markets
The German market for paper-based mail communication will decline further as digital communication increases. We will continue to adapt the Post & Parcel Germany product portfolio to reflect this development and further expand combined delivery of letters and parcels.
The German advertising market should grow slightly in 2026. However, the shift from paper-based advertising to online marketing will continue, so that the volumes in the physical advertising market – and thus for our Dialogue Marketing services – are expected to be in decline.
According to current predictions, the rising number of goods shipments will partially compensate for significantly declining volumes of documents in international business. Intra-European and international e-commerce could once again grow significantly, despite subdued consumer sentiment. However, volumes on trade lanes affected by restrictions and higher tariffs may fall significantly.
We expect the trend in national and pan-European e-commerce to continue steadily and the German parcel market to grow slightly again in 2026. We are therefore expanding our parcel network as well as our network of Packstations and Poststations. We are also expanding our range of electronic communications services, securing our standing as a quality leader and, where possible, making our transport and delivery costs more flexible.
