S&P Global predicts that global economic growth is likely to maintain only a moderate pace during the second half of 2024 and beyond. Global trade is also expected to grow only moderately, expanding by 3.1% in price-adjusted terms (July forecast by the IMF), compared with an average of nearly 5% during the three decades preceding the COVID–19 pandemic. Apart from the structural disruptions due to the climate crisis, this reflects political polarization combined with increasing protectionism in many countries. This hampers the reduction in core inflation, which is likely to delay and limit monetary easing by leading central banks.
S&P Global expects the world economy to grow by 2.7% in 2024. The global sideways tendency conceals slight year-on-year weakening in China (from 5.2% to 5.0%) and the United States (from 2.5% to 2.4%) on the one hand, and modest acceleration in the eurozone (from 0.6% to 0.8%) and Germany (from 0.0% to 0.3%) on the other.
