Geopolitical instability restrains global economic recovery
The ongoing geopolitical dislocations will likely continue to dampen global demand and trade in 2024. The easing tensions in global energy markets seen in 2023 could persist in 2024, thus supporting the current declining trend for inflation. However, the associated increase in real purchasing power will provide only a partial offset to the prevailing unsettledness among investors and consumers. Overall, global annual average GDP growth should weaken modestly once again from 2.7% in 2023 to 2.3% in 2024.
For the most important countries and regions, S&P Global Market Intelligence predicts the following GDP growth rates in 2024: growth in China and the United States is expected to weaken to 4.7% and 1.7%, respectively, and to remain roughly steady at a very subdued 0.4% in the eurozone. The German economy should see mild GDP growth of 0.3%, reflecting a gradual strengthening of growth momentum throughout the year following the recession experienced during the second half of 2023.
Highly cyclical international express market
Growth in the international express market, particularly in the B2B segment, is highly dependent upon the economic situation. For 2024, we still expect only moderate growth, depending on economic development.
Freight business influenced by demand and geopolitical developments
Developments in freight logistics are also heavily dependent upon the economic situation and are difficult to predict in light of the uncertain market situation. However, in air and ocean freight, we expect a cautious revival in terms of demand due to the economic conditions and anticipate moderate growth for 2024. In addition, for the ocean freight market especially, the speed with which the capacity bottleneck tensions ease on the Red Sea is of importance.
In light of rather moderate economic development, we also expect only restrained volume growth in the European road transport market in 2024, but we are also still faced with high prices.
Contract logistics market continues to grow
Growth in omnichannel e-commerce as well as geopolitical challenges will continue to increase the complexity of supply chains. This, together with the apparent vulnerability of traditional supply chains and the increasing complexity of global trade relations, will increase the demand for flexible and agile solutions, further driving outsourcing. Furthermore, in the current phase of the economic cycle, many companies are reviewing their structures and cost situations, which could result in a slightly increased willingness to outsource logistics. Therefore, the market for contract logistics is likely to continue growing, yet inflation, general economic conditions and labor shortages represent both an opportunity and a threat.
Stable growth prospects for eCommerce
It is to be expected that the share of e-commerce in total retail revenue will continue to grow. In line with the implementation of our plans for expansion, we will continue to invest in our network, efficient workflows for the last mile and infrastructure so that we remain reliable and affordable for our customers. We also see additional opportunities for growth thanks to our entry into the Turkish market as well.
Stable trends in the relevant post and parcel markets
The German market for paper-based mail communication will decline further as digital communication increases. We will continue to adapt the Post & Parcel Germany product portfolio to reflect this development.
The German advertising market should rise slightly in 2024. However, the shift from paper-based advertising to online marketing will continue, so that the volumes in the physical advertising market – and thus for our Dialogue Marketing services – are expected to be in decline.
According to current predictions, the rising number of goods shipments will partially compensate for significantly declining volumes of documents in international business. Intra-European and international e-commerce could once again grow significantly.
We expect development in e-commerce to stabilize and the German parcel market to grow slightly again in 2024 and are therefore expanding our parcel network and our network of Pack- and Poststations. We are also expanding our range of electronic communications services, securing our standing as a quality leader and, where possible, making our transport and delivery costs more flexible.
