The first half of the 2024 fiscal year will foreseeably still be shaped by the lack of any broad upward trend in the economy. The comparison with the first half of the previous year, when freight rates were still extraordinarily high in some cases, could be negative. If the economic forecasts currently available prove to be largely accurate, the result in the second half of the year should come in above the level of the comparable prior-year period. With undiminished focus on cost and price management, however, we still expect Group profit to be well above the level of the pre-pandemic years, even with a continuation of weak economic development.
In the 2024 fiscal year, we anticipate consolidated EBIT between €6.0 billion and €6.6 billion. The DHL divisions are projected to generate total EBIT of more than €5.7 billion. In the Post & Parcel Germany division, EBIT is forecast to come in at more than €0.8 billion. Group Functions is anticipated to contribute around €–0.45 billion to earnings.
The Board of Management and the Supervisory Board will propose to the shareholders at the Annual General Meeting on May 3, 2024, a dividend of €1.85 per share for the 2023 fiscal year (previous year: €1.85).
As of the reporting date, our credit rating was still at “A2” with a stable outlook according to Moody’s Investor Service and was classified as “BBB+” with a positive outlook by Fitch Ratings. As part of our finance strategy, we still strive for a stand-alone target rating between “Baa1” and “A3” and “BBB+” and “A–,” respectively.
Due to the dividend payment for the 2023 fiscal year in May 2024, our liquidity is expected to decrease up to mid-year 2024. Due to the usually good business development in the second half of the year, the liquidity situation should improve again toward the end of the year.
As in the previous year, we want to manage investments in our strategic goals and further growth in a balanced way, in line with the challenging economic environment. We plan for capital expenditure (excluding leases) to range between €3.0 billion and €3.6 billion in 2024, while focusing on the same areas as in previous years.
In view of the expected EBIT development in combination with a predicted increase in the asset charge, we expect the EAC to be down slightly year over year. Free cash flow is projected at around €2.75 billion, including a €250 million overall budget for M&A expenses.
The development of GHG emissions in the 2024 fiscal year will also depend on the development of the global economy. If transport volumes undergo weaker development, we expect logistics-related GHG emissions to remain approximately at the prior-year level; if the economy proves to be more dynamic, we aim to limit GHG emissions to a maximum of 34.9 million tons of CO₂e. This includes decarbonization effects of 1.5 million tons of CO₂e. We continue to expect a significant reduction to not come until the second half of the decade.
Employee Engagement should amount to more than 80% across the Group in the 2024 fiscal year as well; this figure is expected to remain steady at least this high level through 2025.
In the 2024 fiscal year, 28.8% of the positions in middle and upper management should be held by women; the share of women should rise to at least 30% by 2025.
The LTIFR per 200,000 working hours should be kept at a maximum of 3.3 in the 2024 fiscal year; by 2025, this figure should be reduced to less than 3.1. Beginning in the 2024 reporting period, we will adjust the performance indicator to one million working hours, which means the target then corresponds to 16.5 and 15.5 in the year 2025.
In the reporting year, the share of valid training certificates among middle and upper management should remain at the high level and amount to 98%.
The cybersecurity rating from BitSight should be within the upper quartile of the comparison group and amount to at least 690 points. If BitSight once again changes its rating scale, we will adjust this figure in line with the change.